Why Has It Become Difficult to Make Long-Term Weather Forecasts?
3 min read
7 დეკემბერი, 2025
Summary
Long-term weather forecasting in Georgia is becoming increasingly difficult due to rapid and frequent atmospheric changes. According to specialist Tamar Papashvili, accurate forecasts are only reliable for the next five days. In the coming days (until September 14), cool and rainy weather will persist across the country. Starting September 15, weather conditions will improve in western Georgia, while rain will continue only in some parts of the east. Temperatures will rise to 30–32°C in the west and 27–29°C in the east. In several eastern regions, significant differences between daytime and nighttime temperatures are expected.
According to Nino Chkhobadze, the Chair of the “Green Movement of Georgia / Friends of the Earth,” making long-term weather forecasts has become extremely difficult due to numerous and very rapid changes occurring in the atmosphere...
Are there sharp weather changes, and what conditions should we expect in Georgia in the coming days? Tamar Papashvili, the Senior Specialist of Long-Term Weather Forecasts at the Hydrometeorology Department of the National Environmental Agency, explains...
– Ms. Tamar, we are increasingly hearing about unusual weather patterns and sharp changes...
– September is naturally a transitional period from summer to autumn, so seasonal changes are always noticeable during this time. In western Georgia, relatively warm and humid weather is often maintained, while in eastern Georgia September tends to be less rainy. However, we are not protected from having several rainy days as well. This week, that is exactly what happened — in eastern Georgia, especially in Kakheti, heavy rainfall was observed. In addition, the temperature difference between day and night in eastern Georgia has become quite noticeable.
As for long-term forecasts, weather predictions are most accurate only for the next five days, after which accuracy gradually decreases.
– What is the weather forecast for the coming days?
– According to the short-term forecast, rainy and cool weather will persist in Georgia until September 14. Starting September 15, conditions will improve in western Georgia, while in eastern Georgia rain will continue only in some areas. Temperatures will rise in western Georgia, reaching 30–32°C, while in eastern Georgia they will reach 27–29°C.
For the next four days, eastern Georgia can expect relatively cool and rainy weather, with temperatures ranging between 17–22°C.
Manana Gabrichidze